There are very few milestones left for Shane Doan to pass. He's now the Arizona Coyotes' all time goals, points, power play goals, and games played leader. The Stanley Cup has proven elusive, but it's fair to say Shane Doan has little left to prove.
Still, there is one milestone Doan would almost certainly love to have before hanging up the skates. Doan could potentially join the (currently) 83 players who have recorded over 1,000 points in their career. He would be the second player (after Ray Whitney) to do so while a member of the Coyotes.
But how realistic is it for Doan to join that club? Does he have enough time left in his career to climb all the way over the 1,000 point mark?
The Number to Beat
As it stands now, Shane Doan has 931 career points, which is 69 away from 1,000. He has 33 points this season, and is putting up points at a .73 points per game pace. Assuming that pace holds through the rest of this season, Doan would be expected to put up 20 points in his last 28 games. That would put him at 951, just 49 points away from the plateau.
But while impressive, .73 points per game is a lot in today's NHL. So for the sake of argument, let's assume that Doan only records points at the rate he has scored during Dave Tippett's tenure in Arizona (2009-present), which with 308 points over 474 games, is still .64 points per game. With 28 games left this season, we would expect Doan to record 17 more points, which would put him at 948 career points, 52 back of 1,000.
Let's make it as challenging as possible for Doan to get to 1,000. Let's say he doesn't score a single point for the rest of this season. So 69 will be the magic number for Doan to reach over the remainder of his career for our purposes.
Getting to 1,000
Now it remains uncertain how long Doan will actually continue playing, though it seems like he's healthy and productive enough to continue on for at least another year, if not more. The ageless Jaromir Jagr is still going at age 43 despite playing 100 more regular season games than Doan has, so it's not impossible to imagine Doan lacing up for another couple of seasons, especially if the young core of Coyotes forwards makes the team highly competitive.
So let's map out a few different career scenarios and see how many points Shane Doan would need per season to reach 1,000 career points.
|Seasons||Points Per Season||Points Per Game|
Doan has recorded more than 69 points in a season only twice in his career (2007-08 and 2008-09), so expecting him to do it now might be a bit much to ask.
But 35 points in a season? That seems more than possible, especially if Doan continues to log power play time. He's recorded at least 35 points in each full season since Tippett took over (the lockout shortened season was the only exception, when he only scored 27 points in 48 games).
Even more encouraging is the fact that Doan has missed time in five of his seven years under Dave Tippett. So even injuries would not do much to derail his chances of getting to 1,000 over multiple seasons, barring any significant ailment.
It's important to remember that all of the numbers above assume Doan records zero points over the remaining 28 games this season. That's difficult to imagine.
Ultimately Doan's ability to get to 1,000 points will hinge on how long he can still be an NHL regular. If his play this season is any indication, the 1,000 point mark may not be as far out of reach as Doan fans may have thought just a couple of years ago.