Part two of this four part series looks at some of the fuzzy math that supporters of a return to Winnipeg have been passing off as fact.
The CBC recently aired this news piece about the possible NHL return to Winnipeg:
Winnipeg Revenue Crunch - Breaking Down the Numbers for NHL Return - CBC
Scott Oake estimates the attendance to be at 14.5k per game. With those numbers the team would earn $45 mil per season. The question is: wouldn't Phoenix need to sell at least the same number of seats to make the same amount of money?
Here's the thing, they did. See the following attendance numbers:
Scott also guessed "That's at an average of $75 per seat"; However, there are only two teams near and over that $75 range-
the Habs and the Leafs. A better comparison is the two closest teams in market size, the Flames and Oilers, average ticket price are both at $59. So if you put those more reasonable numbers into the equation you come up with $35 million, not $45. An even better comparison is to base it on the markets gross domestic product - per capita
. Winnipeg's estimated GDP is $32,102 just below Buffalo's GDP of $32,872. So if we use Buffalo's average ticket price of $36, we get about $21.5 million, no where near that $45 million figure.
To put this all in perspective, the Coyotes average ticket price from last year was $37, and Jobing.com Arena has 2,500 more seats than the MTS Centre. So going on the 97% occupancy guesstimated on the video, and using Jobing.com Arenas capacity at the current average price, we come out with a number just shy of $26 million. This of course is not including the estimated $19 mil having twice the number of luxury boxes could generate.
Tomorrow we will discuss the gift clause and Matt Hulsizers financial commitment to the team.