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When Do Expectations Get Too High?

Nicklas Lidstrom remembers he's meeting Chelios at Denny's for the senior special later as his back acts up. (He's only 40 though, I think Cheli is 102)

This past season the Coyotes were expected to do absolutely nothing. Mired in a financial and ownership nightmare everyone picked them to finish dead last in the league, crushed under the weight of bad press and the franchise's uncertainty. But that's not at all what happened. The Coyotes cruised past even the most optimistic of expectations to finish 4th in the Western Conference and 5th overall in the NHL. The fans were excited. The franchise was rejuvenated, the team was no longer a joke on the ice. The expectations were in the basement and because of that when they were exceeded by a large margin everyone was talking and everyone that liked the team was excited about them. 

This year the expectations are higher. It's not some low point bar or just squeak into the playoffs or not finish last. Fans and others expect the team to make the playoffs and be competitive. I'd say the organization expects to improve on last year and at least advance into the second round of the playoffs. Even so there are ways to exceed that goal. Go to the Conference finals, win the division, win the Stanley Cup even, there are plenty of ways to exceed expectations. That got me thinking about other teams though and where can they exceed the expectations of their fans and organizations?

Star-divide

What do teams that have had success do to exceed their fans expectations and do something magical and surprising? Can they? For example, what could the Detroit Red Wings do to improve themselves? Sure they were "only" a 5th seed in the playoffs last year, but they've been so successful for so long that they're practically committed to winning the cup every year. As I was watching the game from Detroit last night against the Avalanche I was struck by how some of the fans were just kind of there and enjoying the game, but weren't really into it. That's not an indictment against Detroit fans, just the observation that for teams that have had so much success that the regular season is somewhat fun to watch, but in fans' minds they've already got visions of April going on. 

See I'm optimistic and have penciled the Coyotes in for the playoffs, but fans of successful teams practically have them written in in Sharpie already. Where's the fun and the drama in that? Why play 82 regular season games if the journey isn't just as fun as the end goal? The players will go out every night and play hard, but if the fans get a bit jaded by the success of a team to the point that the only outcome they're satisfied with is the Cup is that a good thing? Sure you want your team to compete for it every year, but to expect it? That seems like a letdown waiting to happen. 

Basically I went through all of that to ask this... Is there a point for a franchise, in any sport, where it's a good thing to have a year or two out of the championship or even the playoff picture after a long streak of success? I'll go back to the Wings because it's a good example. The Wings are an old team age wise. They're in a unique position to be able to bring in players cheaper than most teams because of their success, but at some point they need to get younger. At least by a little bit. Would it benefit them to have a season or two to "rebuild" and come back with expectations lower than before? Where fans were excited about seeing the young guys in the regular season and over achieve a-la the Avalanche of last year? Another example could be the Devils. They hamstrung themselves (in my opinion) with the Ilya Kovalchuck deal. Martin Brodeur is getting up there in age and they've got a ton of cap issues. Might in not benefit them to have some time to clear out some cap space and fall out of the spotlight for a year or two to develop some young talent?

I just want the conversation, I'm curious to know when do franchises and fanbases need a reboot after a streak of success? Or do they really need one at all? Am I just a crazy person? Talk it up in the comments. 

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Nice problem to have...

I don’t know that the expectations can get too high, but I understand the general sentiment you are going for Travis. It’s certainly true that if you are a team that has had continued success, then there’s a certain level of expectations and you just aren’t going to get too excited about some regular season game against a non-bitter rival the way you would for an April postseason series. I’m not sure that you really need to have a few off years to regain that same excitement though and I’m sure that the die-hards have it regardless.

The converse is that when those doldrums hit, it shouldn’t make you freak out. Unfortunately, I’ve never been able to deal with that second part of it. The Phillies have been on a 3 year run that should make any fan of a team not named the Yankees salivate…despite this, I still find myself screaming at the TV about bad calls in games in April & May that I know just aren’t that big a deal. It’s probably that I’m not wired right for these things, but it’s what a fan is about. Maybe if the Phillies win another World Series or two, I’ll roll with things a bit better, but I doubt it. Getting to the larger point of your piece, although my expectations are sky high for the Phillies, I still carry that same emotional connection for every game…and I’m sure I’ll be the same with the Coyotes in 2019-20 when we are celebrating our 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup Championship….

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(Oh, and go Philly teams as well!)

by Jordan Ellel on Oct 13, 2010 1:09 PM MST reply actions  

It’s a nice problem to have, just curious as to what others thought. A few seasons might not be a big deal, the Pens are still exciting, the Blackhawks have some time to be on the high end, but The Wings, the Lakers in the NBA, the Patriots in the NFL they all had loooong streaks of success that make it hard for fans to deal with a failure, but in the long run wouldn’t eating it for a year give the team and fans something to play for again? That’s kind of what i’m thinking…

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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.

by Travis Hair on Oct 13, 2010 1:17 PM MST up reply actions  

I wholeheartedly agree Travis. There is a point at which you have to realize that most likely the run you had is over due to a number of factors – losing players in free agency, coaches and key front office people leaving, injuries, retirements, and your star players aging.

The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.

by Carl Putnam on Oct 13, 2010 2:31 PM MST up reply actions  

It's a business and winning is the product

Hockey and other professional sports ticket sales are generally dependent on winning. Sure there are markets where lovable losers might flourish for some years, but that’s the exception rather than the rule. For NHL hockey, it seems that the entire country of Canada may fall into that category, but the US market is something different. Look at the Penguins as the best example of a resurgent team selling a lot of tickets versus being on the block.

If you boil it down, there’s not much difference between a professional sports team and a publicly traded company. The pressure on any business to produce EVERY quarter is relentless, personally I think that pressure had a great deal to do with our financial morass. The CEO of most any public company must satisfy the shareholders by not only meeting financial projections (like a great prior year in the playoffs) but actually beating the projections forecast by outside financial analysts.

So, the Red Wings can’t take a year or so off to rebuild and Kyle Turris won’t get to play in the first two games of the year.

by GFallar on Oct 13, 2010 1:21 PM MST reply actions  

Again, I’m not saying that you’d plan on it or go a long period of time losing, just long enough to make the goals more realistic instead of unattainable. Does that sort of make sense?

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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.

by Travis Hair on Oct 13, 2010 1:23 PM MST up reply actions  

The Wings actually can take a year off. They’d do ok financially. If they took 5 years off then that would start to be another story. Each market is different due to history, demographics, etc. Older franchises that are ingrained in the cultural fabric of a city can get away with a rebuild easier than one in a city where a franchise is newer. You don’t lose all your fans overnight. Even the Coyotes situation shows that.

The funny thing is the franchises in older cities many times refuse to rebuild because they fear a fan backlash ( see Leafs, Flyers, Rangers). Look at what the Pens and Caps did. Instead of trying to constantly fill holes to make the playoffs they actually rebuilt their clubs.

The Wings have done well drafting (scouting is the most under rated part of hockey franchises), developing, and filling in through free agents and trades when needed. The way to succeed over time is always to have good management that has a long term plan.

The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.

by Carl Putnam on Oct 13, 2010 2:28 PM MST up reply actions  

how do you develop talent in the NHL though?

It seems that the only players that contribute “right away” are the top 5 picks in the first round, and even that is usually not the case. Most of the time, it seems there are one to two guys and then the rest are a “crap shoot”. Usually ECHL of AHL for a few years to develop and then get their “shot” at making the team such as Boedker and Turris this year (though they were thrown in early due to the Coyotes lineup issues a few years back)… Its hard to say, because unless you are last place in the league, the chances of getting those guys that can contribute out of the gate are slim to none, and the chances of developing into a nice productive NHL player after that seems to be just as much of a toss-up at the 3rd pick as the 80th pick in the draft. I suppose it doesn’t hurt to have guys come up a few games each year to see the speed of the game and such, but I don’t think you need to “rebuild” to necessarily develop young talent. Of course sometimes there are steals and gems of a draft (I always use Luc Robitaille as my example having been a 9th rounder)… I compare NHL drafting more to that of baseball than basketball or football… A productive MLB player may be a 14th rd pick, and gets his shot 4 years after the draft, and this is similar to that of the NHL which drafts too early IMO, and should maybe give guys til they are 20 rather than 18 to have more time to hone skills. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule, but how many years have we had more than a handful of players come in the first yuear they are drafted and contribute right away? It seems like it is always more of a 2-3 year process, so I think developing a good affiliate program is more important than rebuilding altogether…

by Gildo on Oct 13, 2010 1:49 PM MST reply actions  

Using the Detroit example don’t they specialize in turning those 7th round picks onto success stories? Aren’t they exactly the kind of team that could take a draft class and develop them into NHL players? You develop them in the AHL, but at some point they have to get playing time in the NHL. The Coyotes did it the wrong way in 08-09 rushing kids. Doing it right means bringing in some vets to show the kids the right way to do things and having them grow. like we did last year. I’m not saying I’m right or wrong that it’s a natural cycle that should happen, but am curious as to what others think :)

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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.

by Travis Hair on Oct 13, 2010 2:17 PM MST up reply actions  

I’d add plenty of guys develop in juniors or in SEL (you’ll see more coming from KHL as well).

The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.

by Carl Putnam on Oct 13, 2010 2:20 PM MST up reply actions  

TO be honest, I think luck has more to do with it than anything

I’ve seen plenty of instances where injury contributes to a young player getting thrusted into action prior to a team’s scheduled development of said player. This could turn out good, bad or ugly, but it really depends on the supporting cast and the need of the team at the time… In a perfect world, when you get to Detroit’s age, you could really start to “rebuild” by bringing these developmental players up to a 4th line so they get experience and playing time with the big boy vets like Franzen, Lidstrom and Datsyuk without really “giving much up”… I am not by any means disagreeing with the idea of purposely rebuilding to develop youth, I just believe that a well managed team can avoid the “rebuilding process” per se, and develop youth and continue to win games. It is always nice to exceed expectations, but I don’t think any team would necessarily want to purposely lower expectations to simply engage the fans moreso than prior years by attempting exceed said lowered expectations… That plan could backfire and lead to more harm than good if you didnt even meet the lowered expectations (we Coyotes fans know this all too well), and hopefully with higher expectations our team can exceed them as they did last year, which would put us in the “contender” category if not this year, then definitely the next. Imagine being buyers at the deadline with 30M dollars below the cap, and GMDM actually having a budget to increase the cap hit of the tam rather than trying to scrape the floor? playoffs last year at the floor, could mean deep playoffs with a little extra money to spend on a midseason “need”…

by Gildo on Oct 14, 2010 12:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Of course

Hockey is just a game where players throw the puck in front of the net and hope for a deflection or bouncing puck.

by KholdStare88 on Oct 14, 2010 8:25 PM MST up reply actions  

I would actually say 2-3 years if everything turns out well is where you get competitive and its more like 4-6 in the cases of late bloomers and defensemen. With the cap now in place teams are learning how truly important scouting and development are for them to be successful, especially if they want to be so for the long run.

The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.

by Carl Putnam on Oct 13, 2010 2:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Interesting Point

But I think we’ll come closer to your concern when we actually win the cup. Until then, we still “suck,” as in, we have room to improve. Let’s start with what I will look for this season, which is our power plays. Right now, how about not only getting to the playoffs, but actually advancing quite a bit? We lost some key defenders, so it’s also interesting to see if our defense will take a dive even if our offense may go up.

Of course, I do agree that’s a win from behind, or as the underdog, is more satisfying to watch than a win that you expect to happen. But we’re not a perfect team; we have some issues that we can work at. We also have some new faces, so it will be interesting to see how they progress.

by KholdStare88 on Oct 14, 2010 8:25 PM MST reply actions  

I’m not saying WE have this issue, just what do teams at the very top for a very long time a la Wings and Yankees do to create realistic goals and expectations from fans.

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JaredFromLondon: ...Odin, he's cool.

by Travis Hair on Oct 14, 2010 9:36 PM MST up reply actions  

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